Nothing bores me more than people with crystal balls.

The more I talk to people, the broader and less certain the subjects, the more fun I find it to picture them turbaned, leaning over a crystal ball by candle light, muttering an incantation…

“Yes, the spirits have spoken. If we leave the EU our government will totally not join TTIP!”

“Indeed, I see it clearly… having a baby would be the best/worst decision in your life!”

“Allow me to consult the cards, I need to know whether your business will keep making money in two years.”

“The prophecy says that if we do not quell the rise of religion, we will be in the dark ages by 2050…”

“The lines on your hand predict a short love life, so avoid marriage because it will never last.”

“Donald Trump’s stars say that if he tries to build a wall he will start WWIII!”

Yes, I’m sure you’re completely right. If every single factor you are assuming actually takes place. And everyone seems to think they have it figured out. TTIP is supported by the EU, so if we leave the EU then we will do the opposite of them, right? Well, only if the government wants to. There are many reasons for leaving the EU that don’t exclude joining TTIP separately. Relationship statistics are pretty bad, so marriage is pointless, right? Well, only if you are marrying out of some desire to have a pretty wedding and impress your friends, rather than as a legal tool to assist in your shared goals. Marriage is about working as a team towards one thing, not going along for the ride and seeing where you wind up. Trump’s wall would create masses on international conflict and break out into war, right? Well, only if other nations view it as worth their while to start armed conflict with the USA. Perhaps border control isn’t worth the risk of annihilation.

Same goes for all the rest. The underlying assumptions need to be true, and the buildup conditions need to be fulfilled for your “prophecy” to play out.

So stick to your crystal ball. I’ll just keep working on everything I can control and keep on the fence regarding everything I can’t. It’s less stressful that way.

TTFN and Happy Hunting!

 

For help starting out homemaking, check out The ESSENTIAL Beginner Homemaker’s Guide. For help budgeting all your everday and not-so-everyday essentials, from food to transport to clothes, check out On A Budget: The good homemaker’s guide to economizing.
Advertisements

10 thoughts on “Nothing bores me more than people with crystal balls.

  1. The problem with the wall isn’t war, it’s the inefficacy. A wall on its own doesn’t really keep people out, a whole security apparatus is necessary, and we’re talking about an enormous expanse of land. Spain’s tried this in Melilla with a fence that’s 7 feet high and 12 miles long with barbed wire and blades. It’s a mess. People still get through. Many die in the process. It also puts security forces in an awful position. So it’s a huge (continued) investment for results that are nowhere near excellent.

    Like

    • But, again, it’s still unpredictable whether in the long run it will be worthwhile or not. Migration statistics, drug trafficking and terror threats are vastly different for the US-Mex border compared to the Af-Med border. For starters no natural boundaries, established drug routes, urban sprawl right along border lines and no secondary boundaries once the first has been overcome.

      It worked fairly well for China, the USSR and Israel. It doesn’t work too well in Europe today, for ex Hungary. It is considered a viable solution by Canada. It is not currently considered worthwhile by France or Saudi Arabia. There is no true precedent for the US doing it. And that’s assuming that migration laws, migration efforts, drug trade, sex traffic and international relations don’t change for the better or the worse.

      In the eventuality of a spike in drug trade or civil war across the border it would be a smart decision. In the eventuality of a change in migration and import policies it may prove a useless decision and be removed before it has paid for itself. And there’s nothing to say what will happen in the next five, ten, twenty years. Who knows if it will be lucky or unlucky fortune? Some would say better safe than sorry, but they have their own crystal balls too. It’s very possible that the US would regret the alterations in infrastructure and the expense more than any risks posed by a less secure border.

      So all that can happen is: do or don’t do and find out. Which isn’t comforting for anyone, but it’s the reality of a situation like this one.

      Liked by 1 person

      • We do know certains things, though. The estimated construction cost is 25 billion (for comparison, Oklahoma’s entire budget is 7 billion.) And by the 7th year maintenance costs will have exceeded construction costs. And that’s just the wall itself. You have to then calculate personnel costs because for a wall to be effective you need armed guards 24/7. The armed guards will need facilities, bathrooms, lighting for night time. These costs would be permanent.
        So in essence we’re talking about a project that will cost as much as a new state.

        People don’t like to say it because it doesn’t serve political interests, but migration is something that sorts itself out naturally. People migrate in search of work, if there’s no work, they have to keep going. When the 2008 crisis happened migration to Spain, for example, didn’t just fall to 0%, previously settled migrants started leaving. And then Spanish people started leaving as well. As the economy improves people are starting to go back.

        Like

      • However then we need to consider current border control costs. $12 billion a year total. If that can be corrected or reduced (in theory, a better, larger, deterrent will reduce the maintenance costs of border restrictions] then over a few years it could sort itself out. Then again, if the work is rushed or done poorly, it could end up costing more to staff and maintain.

        I agree with you on migration. However we do need checks in place to deter migrants from pursuing low level jobs whilst unemployment is still a problem, in any nation. Not to say the solution is a wall. To be honest, I would argue the best checks for the unemployment-migration balance are,
        A: Rewarding nationals for working low-end jobs, rather than allowing some of the working poor to live below the quality of life you can have on welfare. (ie, living wage, income support at any wages below threshold regardless of marital status, more government perks for workers on split shifts, night shifts, long hours or jobs paid by completion instead of hour]
        B: Deterring companies from hiring people at below minimum wage. (ie, not letting a company hire 300 illegal migrants as cleaners at a quarter of minimum wage and get away with a tiny fine when they are caught; prosecute them for human rights violations and drive the company into the dirt, to dissuade them and others from doing it again]

        But the problem with that is acknowledging that most first world governments are too corrupt to adequately allocate resources and penalize exploitation. People more on the left will not mention it because it paints migration, welfare and big government in a bad light. People more on the right will not mention it because it paints capitalism, entrepreneurs and the law enforcement system in a bad light. At the end of the day, we don’t like saying “the whole way we think about things is messed up, the future is uncertain and we’d rather play cliques and angrily tweet at strangers than actually fix our problems”.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Will give it some thought and probably write something up. Still working on splitting the political and critical posts from the more homemaker and being a balanced person type posts. 😛

        Like

  2. In re illegal immigration and a wall, etc…

    We’re not gonna get a wall. We could use a de-militarized zone staffed with our military folks. We probably won’t ever get that either. We *need* to control the immigration… and it’s not the nice folks who pick tomatoes who are the problem. (I find it seriously amusing that you think that you can get a job picking veggies here if you’re not illegal). It’s the drug dealers. The gangbangers. The coyotes (people smugglers). They’re nasty and dangerous – and they’re a danger to landowners on the border as well as to the people they smuggle. They, along with the homeless, are why I don’t walk off-road in my area. Not ever. It’s extremely unsafe.

    Why won’t we ever get that? Because there are a lot of very wealthy people who profit off of exploiting migrant workers – and make no mistake, it is exploitation at its worst – and those people donate heavily to political campaigns.

    We could pay for the wall with the savings in crime, emergency room use, extra schooling, etc – and with the big fat fines that we OUGHT to serve the companies who flagrantly hire illegals.

    We OUGHT to have a system where we screen migrant workers and give them cards to work, we ought to redo the immigration system so that it didn’t take decades to come here legally, in other words – we ought to have a way for the nice folks to come in, and leave the gangbangers out. I’m not anti-immigrant, it’s the “illegal” part I have issue with.

    Instead, we have well-lit drug tunnels with rail systems to carry freight (like old coal mines).

    It is a real problem.

    – Your buddy who lives w/in 50 miles of the border

    Liked by 1 person

    • Sounds about right! Police and soldiers on the borders to turn back parents with kids, but the billionaire’s drug train is mysteriously allowed to stay up for years before anyone does anything. And then it’s just relocated.

      Another reason that migration won’t be controlled is one few people talk about, but I see it play out here in the UK and I’m sure it happens elsewhere: fines, anti-illegal-migrant staffing and management of migration are all “job creators” for the government sector, generating profits for policy makers at the taxpayer’s expense. It’s a nice little gig for some.

      Like

      • There aren’t really police and soldiers (aka border patrol, which isn’t quite either) anywhere except on the roads. Just a fence. It’s a very long border.

        You don’t want to know how parents with children get here. It’s awful. Plenty do, though. Plenty.

        Liked by 1 person

      • We have similar issues here, and we did in Spain as well. Families forced into bags and boxes over the Africa-Spain border, then cramped on boats from Melilla into continental Europe. Many get seriously ill, some will die. And from there they have nowhere to go. They paid all their money to the smugglers, were oftentimes robbed and abused during the journey, do not speak the language and cannot get work without a passport or some form of national identity. It’s a mess all round.

        Like

Comments Always Appreciated. :)

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s